Russian army armored vehicles roll into landing vessels after drills in Crimea on April 23, 2021. (Russian Defense set Press organization via AP)
Russia has much more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine’s borders and is preparing because that an attack by the finish of January or beginning of February, the head that Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency told military Times.

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Such an attack would likely involve airstrikes, artillery and also armor strikes followed by airborne strikes in the east, amphibious assaults in Odessa and Mariupul and also a smaller incursion through surrounding Belarus, Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told armed forces Times Saturday morning in an exclude, interview.

Russia’s massive Zapad 21 armed forces exercise earlier this year proved, because that instance, that they have the right to drop upwards of 3,500 airborne and special to work troops at once, the said.

The attack Russia is preparing, said Budanov, would be far more devastating 보다 anything before seen in the dispute that started in 2014 that has actually seen some 14,000 Ukrainians killed.


The Ukraine military"s assessment of a exactly how a potential attack by Russia would play out reflects the nation ringed by Russian battalion tactical groups, or BTGs. (Courtesy that Ukraine military)

Speaking come the Washington write-up on Friday, Ukraine’s new Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said it was unclear whether Russian president Vladimir Putin has yet chose to attack.

But Russia is building capacity to do so, Budanov told military Times, raising troop levels and also weapons equipment in populated Crimea and also staging systems prefer Iskandar short-range ballistic missile systems and other weapons elsewhere near the border. And also he scoffed at suggestions that the brutal weather problems during the time that the year would dissuade the Russians from attacking.

“It is no problem for us and the Russians,” Budanov stated of fighting in the frigid weather.

Any together attack, however, would very first follow a collection of psychological operations at this time underway designed to destabilize Ukraine and also undermine its capacity to fight, stated Budanov, speaking v an interpreter.

“They desire to foment unrest, with protests and meetings, that display the human being are versus the government,” he said.

Those efforts include continuous anti-COVID-19 inoculation protests the Budanov said have actually been organized by Russia, i beg your pardon is additionally trying come stoke unrest pertained to the economy and also energy supplies.

In addition, Budanov claimed Russia is trying to whip up anti-government sentiment over one incident referred to as “Wagnergate” — a debate involving around 30 members the the Russian personal military group responsible for strikes inside Ukraine. The Wagner team members, who made their method to Belarus, were an alleged to it is in brought ago to Ukraine to be detained, but instead wound up being sent to Russia v the aid of the Belarus KGB, Budanov said.

Russian mental operations room being supplied to present “our authorities betrayed the people,” said Budanov.

The continuous border conflict in between Poland and Belarus, i m sorry is trying to send refugees right into Europe v Poland’s border, is part of that effort, the said.

“They want to make the instance inside the country an ext and an ext dangerous and also hard and also make a situation where we have actually to readjust the government,” said Budanov. “If castle can’t carry out that, than armed forces troops will do their job.”

Budanov stated U.S. And also Ukraine knowledge assessments about the timing of a Russian assault are an extremely similar.

“Our evaluations are nearly the same as our American colleagues,” he said.



Russian troop movements show more comprehensive conflict is possible, peak Ukraine main says“All accessible information indicates that the armed forces of Russia permanently sustain a powerful offensive grouping roughly Ukraine,” roman Mashovets, deputy head the Ukraine’s Office that the chairman for nationwide security and also defense, told military Times Wednesday.
By Howard Altman
The Russian embassy did not respond come a request for comment Saturday. The Pentagon on Saturday decreased to discuss Budanov’s assessments about the timing and nature of any kind of potential Russian attack, instead pointing to comments made Wednesday and Thursday by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

The U.S. Continues to watch “troubling actions from Russia,” Austin told reporters Wednesday.

“We are not sure specifically what Mr. Putin is up to,” the said. “But these movements certainly have our attention. And I would certainly urge Russia to be more transparent about what they are up come take procedures to live as much as the Minsk agreements.

“Our support for Ukraine sovereignty ar integrity stays unwavering.”

After meeting through Reznikov on Thursday, Austin stated the U.S. Will certainly “continue to advance our shared priority to respond to Russian aggression and to deepen our participation in such areas as black color Sea security, cyber defense and intelligence sharing.”


Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of that nation"s defense knowledge agency. (Courtesy Ukraine set of Defense).

Budanov claimed that ideally, the U.S. Would help deter any type of Russian incursion, through extr military assist and raised diplomatic and economic pressure, including much more sanctions against Russia and the seizure and also blocking the Russian banking accounts.

Also, in addition to U.S. Help already promised and also delivered, including Mark vi patrol boats, Javelin anti-armor systems and also AN/TPQ-53 light counter-fire radar systems, Ukraine seeks additional air, missile and drone defense systems and also electronic jamming devices, Budonov said. Patriot missile batteries and also counter rocket, artillery and mortar systems room on Ukraine’s great list.

The AN/TPQ-53 systems were offered to an excellent effect, Ukraine military officials have actually previously told armed forces Times. Budanov said the Javenlin solution have also been used versus Russian forces. Those, along with Turkish-manufactured drones, used against Russian-aligned separatist artillery troops, have a significant psychological deterrent value, said Budanov, make Russians think twice around attacking.

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Still, that said, Ukraine needs much more help native America.

“I think it’s not sufficient for us best now,” he stated of current and promised U.S. Assist to Ukraine. “We require more. No nations except Ukraine have actually open war v Russia. And we have actually for seven years. It is why we’re certain the U.S should give us whatever we didn’t obtain before. And also right now. The the appropriate time because that this. Due to the fact that after it might be really late.”

About Howard Altman

Howard Altman is one award-winning editor and also reporter who was previously the armed forces reporter because that the Tampa just Times and also before that the Tampa Tribune, wherein he extended USCENTCOM, USSOCOM and also SOF writ huge among many other topics.